‘Farmer’s Almanac’ predicts winter warmer than normal
online exclusive
By Correne Martin
With the warm weather this past week, it’s hard to utter the dreaded “W” word. But colder temperatures and snowy precipitation are inevitable of “winters” in Wisconsin.
No one seems to be able to predict the weather better than “The Old Farmer’s Almanac,” the 2018 edition released Sept. 12. Since the oldest, continuously published periodical touts itself as “the only weather prognosticator with traditionally 80 percent accuracy,” it’s understandable why so many Midwestern farmers and seniors put such great stock into the yearly projection.
According to the 2018 volume, the coming winter shall be colder than last winter, but warmer than an average winter: “The rain and snow will fall, though, with above-normal precipitation throughout most of the country.” Editor Janice Stillman, who spoke with the Courier Press from Yankee Publishing’s New Hampshire office, said “average” means weather recorded between 1981 and 2010, the same 30-year period referenced by most meteorologists.
The current issue also breaks the United States into 18 regions for which the almanac’s meteorologist Michael Steinberg determines weather forecasts for the next year. The southwest corner of Wisconsin and all of Iowa are included in the Heartland region, which spreads slightly into the southeast corner of Minnesota and western Illinois, through most of Missouri and well into Nebraska and Kansas.
In his summary, Steinberg reports that the Heartland region’s winter will be “milder than normal, with above-normal precipitation and snowfall. The coldest periods will be from late November into early December, from late December into early January, and in early February. The snowiest periods will be in mid-November, early to mid- and late December, and early February.”
The Old Farmer’s Almanac derives its weather forecasts from a formula devised by almanac founder Robert B. Thomas, in 1792. Thomas believed weather on Earth was influenced by sunspots, which are magnetic storms on the surface of the sun.
“Of course, Thomas made his predictions based on very little technology and they were distributed very locally in New England,” Stillman said. “Today, we use all the latest satellite data, technology and models and continue to believe in solar activity’s influence.”
Three scientific disciplines are employed to make the almanac’s long-range predictions: 1) solar science, sunspots and other solar activity; 2) climatology, the study of prevailing weather patterns, and 3) meteorology, the study of the atmosphere.
Stillman said sunspots occur every 11 years, on average, and storms increase or decrease in their cycle based on that average. She said the current meteorologist, Steinberg, believes the sun’s energy varies minutely and that the solar activity we’re currently experiencing—Solar Cycle 24, the smallest in more than 100 years—is one of the quietest periods in several cycles. This phase is well into a decline, after reaching double peaks in late 2011 and early 2014, and that means colder than normal temperatures. (Stillman noted, non-believers say distance between the Earth and sun is too great to make any influence on the atmosphere.)
“Historically, it’s shown that the quietest period is also a period of extremely cold weather on Earth,” Stillman said.
In addition, Steinberg takes into consideration meteorology of ocean temperature phases, such as El Niño and La Niña, as well as jet streams, and he shapes his forecasts on climatological movement of the 18 regions.
“For example, the Heartland region is highly influenced by the Rocky Mountains and how prevailing the westerly winds and the Canadian winds flow,” Stillman added.
Over the years, modern calculations have helped refine and enhance the formula utilized by Thomas.
Stillman was quick to emphasize that The Old Farmer’s Almanac’s forecasts highlight temperature and precipitation, based on their deviations from 30-year normals. Those statistical averages are prepared by government meteorological agencies and updated every 10 years.
“We’re not going to tell you exactly how much rain is going to fall or the exact temperatures expected,” Stillman admitted.
Nevertheless, the almanac provides anticipated average monthly temperatures, per region. In the Heartland, November 2017’s average temp is forecast at 38ºF and precipitation is predicted to total 2 inches. The book details what may occur during all days of the month: “1-5 rainy periods, cool. 6-8 snowstorm north, showers south. 9-15 sunny, cold north; snowstorm, then flurries south. 16-25 rain and snow showers, then sunny, turning mild. 26-30 snow showers, frigid.”
For the remainder of the winter 2018, the forecast says December’s average temp will be 29ºF and precipitation 2 inches, January’s temp 34ºF (which is much milder than normal) and precip 2 inches, February’s temp 32ºF and precip 1.5 inches, March’s temp 47ºF and precip 3.5 inches.
Stillman said the almanac’s publication in the fall is intended because it comes at the end of the gardening season, in preparation for the next season. As winter comes and goes, the almanac also offers the same type of forecasts for the summer of 2018.
“We know the folks in the Midwest refer considerably to our periodical because these are the folks who maintain the traditions and customs of country life,” Stillman stated. “That’s what the Old Farmer’s Almanac is all about.”
It’s old, but not old-fashioned, she added. While continuing its foundation as a calendar of the heavens, including seasons and weather, the 272-page 2018 edition is filled with information about gardening, farming and keeping animals healthy, fishing, astrology, collectibles and special occasions, as well as trends of the year, food habits, recipes, funny oddities and children’s interests. “There’s so much detail. It’s really a time capsule of the year,” Stillman said.
To find one of 3 million copies printed of The Old Farmer’s Almanac locally, visit almanac.com/wheretobuy. For more information, visit almanac.com or read more wit and wisdom on Facebook, Pinterest and Instagram.
